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ATS records are even more misleading than what you mention, Todd. Spreads can move from one side to the other of the system's pick, so the system might get the game right ATS on one day and wrong on the next.

For about the last five years I've been keeping track of my system's predictions where the margin between the prediction and the spread -- at the time I check the spread, which is usually very early -- is at least ten points. Such a system virtually always finishes in the black, sometimes by a wide margin (I hit about 62% the year I actually bet the picks legally in Reno). However, I've noticed that Vegas tends to refine their lines more and more from year to year, and not only does it seem to be getting harder to pick games ATS, there are fewer games that meet the criteria I've been using. I'm considering changing the margin from ten points down to eight.